The playoffs start tomorrow! Basketball on almost every night for the next 1.5 months... I'm stoked. Here are some thoughts on the individual series...
Since there are plenty of other sites with better breakdowns, analysis, and predictions of each matchup, I'll write from the perspective of things I'm looking for (strategy, matchups, favorite plays and players) and who I'm rooting for in each series.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Lakers vs. #8 Warriors
Wait... doh. It was a pretty good season overall, nonetheless.
#1 Lakers vs. #8 Nuggets
What I'm looking for:
Fisher can't stick with AI. Neither Walton nor Odom can guard Carmelo either, so coach Phil will have to be selective on who to guard when he sics Kobe in critical defensive situations, depending on whether AI or Melo is hot at the time.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets are horrible on D - "getting bailed out by a help shot blocker" in Camby does not qualify as even passable effort. I expect high scores throughout this series, and for the Lakers to put on a passing clinic that will be aesthetically pleasing. Odom/Kobe should be able to penetrate into the lane and dish short to Gasol for jumpers and layups, or to Fisher/Walton/Farmar/Vujacic for open 3s.
Favorite plays
Lakers: The triangle offense when it's being executed efficiently (and it will be in this series, considering the Nuggets D).
Nuggets: Carmelo going one-on-one from the wing against any defender - he has the best arsenal of weapons from the triple threat position: jab step, up fakes, step-backs, and an explosive first step.
Who I'm rooting for:
Lakers. The Nuggets have often ranked among my least favorite teams because of their tendency to play only 1-1 on offense, not playing any defense, and generally having an overall arrogant, individualistic attitude epitomized by Kenyon. Plus, the Nuggets beat out the Warriors, and I'm feeling just a bit petty.
#2 Hornets vs. #7 Mavericks
What I'm looking for:
Chris Paul is one of my favorite players to watch in the league. Shally (who thinks he looks like Carlton from Fresh Prince) and I had the chance to see him carve up the Warriors when they came to Oracle in February and he was positively textbook in his decision-making on the offensive end, doing an OK job on defense against Monta, and coming up with clutch plays on both ends in the 4th quarter. He gets into the lane so easily because of his quickness and handle, and when he does, it's fascinating to see him make snap judgments whether to fade away, shoot a floater, find Chandler underneath for an alley-oop, or to spin in mid-air and toss a pin-point pass to Stojakovic or West for the jumper.
Kidd's lost a step and will need help guarding Paul in this series, but the Mavs have looked better as he's gotten more comfortable. Nowitzki no longer has to create for himself or for others every trip down the floor, and has wide open 17-ftrs (read: layups) quite often now.
I'm hoping for USA Basketball to take this series' PGs to Beijing this summer.
Favorite plays
Hornets: Chris Paul doing anything, but in particular the short alleyoops to Chandler after drawing two or more defenders in the lane.
Mavericks: Pick and roll with Kidd and Nowitzki in order to get a shorter defender switched onto Dirk, who can then back in or shoot over the top unimpeded.
Who I'm rooting for:
I can go either way on this one. The Mavericks might be a tougher/more intriguing matching up later in the playoffs, but the Hornets are more fun to watch. I'll pick the Hornets here.
#3 Spurs vs. #6 Suns
What I'm looking for:
For all those that vilify Manu for flopping... he primarily flops on offense in attempts to get foul calls. Raja Bell? He is a defensive flopper (a la Fisher, who robbed the Warriors of a chance at a win a few weeks ago by pulling Monta down and getting the foul called on Monta), and defensive flopping is far more irritating to me than offensive flopper.
Anyway, this is clearly the most evenly-matched and highest-quality first round matchup. Even though they have the home court advantage, I see the Spurs as the underdog in this one due to their injury problems and the fact that they've been playing pretty bad the last few weeks.
Favorite plays
Spurs: Since Shaq is most comfortable defending a back-to-the-basket post player, I'd expect the Spurs to bring Duncan out to set screens for Parker and Ginobili more often to force Shaq away from the lane. I'm curious to see whether Duncan matches up with Shaq or Amare most of the time.
Suns: The set offense starting with the Amare-Nash pick and roll is one of the most devastating yet simple basketball plays to watch, all centered on Nash's decision-making ability - drop to the roller, drive it in, kick it to a shooter, or take the shot himself?
Who I'm rooting for:
If you know me... you should know the answer to this one.
#4 Jazz vs. #5 Rockets
What I'm looking for:
Deron Williams is another one of my favorite players to watch in the league - his systematic dismantling of the Warriors and then the Spurs in last year's playoffs left quite the impression on me. He, Boozer, Okur, AK47, and Korver will still have to execute perfectly to score against the super-solid Rockets D. I expect Battier to spend much of his time matched up with Deron since AK47 isn't as much of an offensive threat. I'm also curious to see whether Adelman will trot out Mutombo or Hayes to match up with Boozer, since the other will need to chase Okur around the perimeter. One possibility is to play Mutombo (matched up with Boozer) and have Scola chase Okur around, providing more of an offensive weapon on the other side of the court.
Favorite plays
Rockets: Will T-Mac be disciplined enough to test AK47 off the dribble rather than settling for long jump shots that are easily contested? If so the Jazz don't have any other shot blockers once he gets to the rim.
Jazz: Since everyone knows about the Deron-Boozer pick and roll, I'll want to see some sets featuring AK47 as the decision-maker to force T-Mac to play some defense as well.
Who I'm rooting for:
Jazz. They're more fun to watch and have a textbook offensive system to study.
Eastern Conference in my next post...
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